Ethan Mollick is a scholar and commentator who focuses on how AI affects organizations, jobs, and policy. Recently he has written about job-role blurring due to AI, cited a Google study that reported about seven hours saved per week in scientific work, discussed a decision-classification AI demo, and noted debates between Fable 5.1 Max and GPT-6 Astra Pro over Linear A translations.
When I talk to senior managers, increasingly hearing stories of the blurring of jobs inside organizations (we found this at our P&G study as well): coding, design, product management, all collapsing & overlapping as everyone uses AI We need new models…
Study from Google about AI use in science, complex impacts: acceleration (7 hours saved per week) along with shifts in the kind of work (more verification) and what research gets done (possibly safer topics). Also a good diagram of the jagged frontier https:/…
This is an excellent demo of an AI model designed to rapidly classify information according to decision rules, much faster and cheaper than an LLM. It is not an LLM itself and cannot output text or code, but if it works, has a useful role in systems. (Haven’t…
It is very clear that This Time is Different in terms of AI compared to previous innovations. That doesn't mean it differs in every way from past technologies (the s-curve of diffusion is surprisingly universal), but it differs in many ways that make applying…
I just remembered this thread where I was playing with GPT-3.5 (text-davinci-003) the day it was released, two days before ChatGPT. Less than four years later, and LLMs are at the center of US politics and investment in LLMs is at the center of the US economy…
Having Fable 5.1 Max and GPT-6 Astra Pro argue with each other over proposed translations of the famously untranslated Minoan language Linear A. (Neither of them appear to have cracked it, for what its worth). All the work so far at this Github: https://t.c…
I think once remote connections to “your” Claude or Astra or Claw or whatever become easier and more common, on-phone assistants like Siri will lose a lot of value. You want one smart AI managing everything with visibility into many systems & preferences,…
I don’t know what else happens as a result of the past few days, but I can definitely say that a lot of people who didn’t think much about AI are now freaking out about AI killing everyone.
Existential risk is obviously critical, but it is not the only AI thing that requires policy I worry it will become the sole focus. We don’t need better models for AI to have wide impacts on jobs & society and really need to be preparing to encourage good…
It is often startling to move back and forth between the world of organizations and the world of cutting-edge AI. Organizations underestimate AI ability growth (often by a lot) and the AI tech world underestimates AIs real world jaggedness (often by a lot)
As always, statements on X are a mixed bag and I have no secret knowledge to draw on, but if Google is able to return to the frontier on AI, it would definitely change the current AI dynamic, as it is a large, public, regulated entity with different goals tha…
Now that METR long horizons is effectively saturated (Epoch found pre-Fable agents could do 18 weeks of human work), what is the best quantitative graph that shows the current exponential progress curve? Frontier Math is saturated, ARC-AGI is saturated, Mill…
No matter how much you are hearing about AI, today is the least you will ever hear about AI. [Quoting @tszzl]: if you think AI chatter has reached an annoying level right now you're in for something else. it's going to be the only thing on anybody's mind star…
The strawberry thing was very funny but probably gave people the wrong impression of where AI was heading in math. https://t.co/1euzSU8WRp [Quoting @EpochAIResearch]: Every FrontierMath Tier 4 problem has now been solved by AI, with GPT-6 Astra solving the la…
What you are seeing in math right now is a consequence of the jagged frontier, and a precursor of what is to come in other professions. Yes, mathematicians do math, but they also have other tasks they view as important (mentor students, maintain a scientific…
I am deskilling myself with AI so quickly on so many annoying tasks I don't want or need to be skilled at. Cannot deskill on these fast enough.
Google not having a frontier model anymore means missing out in two areas where they could contribute: the recent run of math breakthroughs (where massive compute plus a deep history in working with science would help) & cybersecurity (where large company…
There appears to be a lot going on here upon a quick read. https://t.co/4balXB308Q [Quoting @AnthropicAI]: We’re sharing our alignment assessment of incidents in which Claude models gained unauthorized access to real systems during third-party cybersecurity e…
Open weights models are further from the frontier than we have seen in some time. Mythos was launched in March, and, as good as the open model releases have been since then (K3 & GLM-5.3 are great) they aren’t that close to Mythos or Astra in practice. I…
There is a nice visualization of how task bundles change with AI & some good interactive simulations of GDP growth under different assumptions in this. But missing are the right policy responses if we do get explosive GDP growth & large-scale white co…
The discourse from folks working at the Labs today is super weird, even for AI discourse, and suggests to me that everyone is in reaction mode to fast moving events, both in revealed AI ability and in public perception.
AI seems to be beating the expectations of the best forecasters. [Quoting @Afinetheorem]: Nov 2025 LEAP panel of AI experts and superforecasters: 10% chance of AI helping solve a Millennium problem by 2027. "One expert cites the Clay president's June 2025 cla…
However compute we have, it is increasingly likely that we are going to need more compute. [Quoting @abhishekn]: By my calculations, just the compute here (300 BILLION output tokens) would cost a regular user $20-$30 million in tokens. How do we sustain this…
Is the @METR_Evals long horizons measure effectively saturated? No updates to the most famous graph of AI progress since May, but other published work suggests you can effectively get 18+ weeks of work out of Fable (and I assume GPT-6) in harnesses. https://…
The A.I. Daily