Issue 2026-09-24 · Industry · 研究

Study: AI experts badly underestimated progress speed

Study: AI experts badly underestimated progress speed

A Forecasting Research Institute study found leading AI experts consistently underestimated AI's pace. AI hit gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years earlier than the median expert forecast, and Anthropic's annualized revenue is about five times predictions, though real-world forecasts like self-driving cars are more mixed.

The Decoder38 d ago
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