Percy Liang @percyliang

What is the probability that Astra today can generate/forecast a particular new paper past its cutoff date? Naive sampling is intractable (tail probability is astronomically small). The key idea of priced guidance is that you can lower bound this probability via a dialogue between the model (Astra) and a guide LLM (Astra with the paper), where we can precisely account for the bits of information sent from the guide to the model. One can also can think of this as a new eval for frontier models. [引用 @wen_kaiyue]: Can LLMs generate novel research ideas? We propose Priced Guidance to quantify this via compression! We lower bound P(LLM forecasts a future paper’s idea X). Instead of sampling ideas until X is matched, the LLM plays “20 Questions” to recover X, charging each hint by surprisal. https://t.co/QKE1byIV2Y